The World Bank published a study assessing 56 “frontier market” economies and found they have largely failed to translate relatively stronger fundamentals into sustained investment and growth since 2010. Investment growth per person in the 2020s to date is running at less than half the pace recorded in the 2010s, with the typical frontier market making little progress in attracting investment since 2000. Frontier markets are home to about 1.8 billion people and are expected to add nearly 800 million more over the next 25 years, yet they account for just 3.1% of global capital inflows and less than 5% of global output. While measured “on the books” financial openness has increased to about half the level of advanced economies, actual financial-market development has been sluggish, including underdeveloped domestic-currency markets and comparatively lower bank lending to households and businesses than in emerging markets. The study links underperformance to weakening fiscal positions, with net interest payments around 2.5% of GDP for the typical frontier market, and notes that nearly 40% defaulted at least once between 2000 and 2024; since the COVID-19 pandemic, frontier markets have recorded more defaults than all other countries combined. It highlights common strategies among top performers, including growth-friendly policies, investment-supporting infrastructure, improved fiscal management, and institutions that attract private investment, citing Viet Nam and Rwanda alongside Bulgaria, Costa Rica, Panama, and Romania, which have reached high-income status since 2012. The analysis is published in the Global Economic Prospects January 2026 report, with the full report and charts available from the World Bank.

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