The Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia left the key policy rate unchanged at 5.75 % and maintained deposit and lending facility rates at 4.5 % and 7.0 %, judging that current and projected inflation remain consistent with target while heightened geopolitical risks, notably the recent spike in global oil prices following the Middle East conflict, cloud the outlook. The rate has been steady at 5.75 % since the last 25 bp cut in September 2024. The central bank reiterated its cautious stance and commitment to preserving exchange-rate stability, adding it will act with “all available instruments” if higher energy costs start feeding into expectations. Year-on-year CPI ran at 2.5 % in February, below the 3 ± 1.5 % target midpoint, but is seen drifting to around 4 % from September due to last year’s low base; credit growth accelerated to 16.4 % y/y in February and services-led activity picked up after refinery disruptions eased. Externally, Serbia’s net-energy-import position makes domestic fuel prices sensitive to global oil moves, though the government has capped margins, cut excise duties and banned petroleum exports to damp secondary effects. Internationally, rising protectionism and uncertainty about the next steps by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank add to volatility in commodity and financial markets. The Board will continue to decide meeting-by-meeting, is updating its forecasts under alternative scenarios, and signalled readiness to tighten if seco
National Bank of Serbia 2026-04-09
NBS keeps key policy rate unchanged at 5.75%
The National Bank of Serbia kept its key policy rate at 5.75 % (deposit 4.5 %, lending 7.0 %), judging inflation of 2.5 % y/y in February is within its 3 ± 1.5 pp target despite heightened geopolitical and oil-price risks. The Board will decide policy meeting by meeting and stands ready to tighten if energy-driven pressures push CPI, projected to approach 4 % from September, beyond the medium-term target.