The Central Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) kept the Selic policy rate unchanged at 15.00% per annum, judging the stance consistent with its strategy to bring inflation back toward target over the relevant horizon. It indicated that, if the expected scenario is confirmed, it anticipates starting monetary policy easing at its next meeting while maintaining a sufficiently restrictive stance to ensure convergence. The decision comes against an externally uncertain backdrop linked to the US outlook and geopolitics, and a domestic picture of moderating activity with a still resilient labour market. Copom noted that headline and underlying inflation have eased but remain above the inflation target; Focus survey expectations for inflation remain above target at 4.0% for 2026 and 3.8% for 2027. In its reference scenario, Copom’s IPCA projections are 3.4% for 2026 and 3.2% for the third quarter of 2027 (with free prices at 3.5% and 3.1%, and administered prices at 3.0% and 3.3%, respectively), based on an interest-rate path from the Focus survey and an exchange rate starting at BRL 5.35 per USD, among other assumptions. Inflation risks were described as unusually elevated in both directions, including the potential for prolonged de-anchoring of expectations and more persistent services inflation on the upside, and sharper domestic or global slowdowns and lower commodity prices on the downside.
Central Bank of Brazil 2026-01-28
Central Bank of Brazil keeps Selic rate at 15.00% and signals possible easing at next meeting
The Central Bank of Brazil's Monetary Policy Committee maintained the Selic rate at 15.00% per annum, aligning with its strategy to guide inflation back to target, and signaled potential easing at the next meeting if conditions align. Despite easing inflation, risks remain elevated with expectations above target, influenced by external uncertainties and domestic economic moderation.