The International Monetary Fund published its 2025 Article IV consultation press release and staff report for Poland, assessing the post-shock macroeconomic position as the output gap nears closure and inflation returns to target. It identifies a widening fiscal deficit and rising public debt as the key vulnerability. Russia’s war in Ukraine is described as a major negative shock to output and positive shock to inflation, with strong real wage growth and recent fiscal stimulus contributing to the recovery and a nearly closed output gap. Inflation is reported to have returned to target due to appropriately tight monetary policy and easing external supply shocks, while the fiscal deficit is projected at 7 percent of GDP in 2025, lifting public debt to 59 percent of GDP, up 10 percentage points over two years.
International Monetary Fund 2026-02-03
International Monetary Fund publishes Poland Article IV assessment noting a projected 7 percent of GDP fiscal deficit in 2025
The International Monetary Fund's 2025 Article IV consultation for Poland highlights a nearly closed output gap and inflation returning to target, while identifying a widening fiscal deficit projected at 7% of GDP and rising public debt as key vulnerabilities. The report attributes these developments to Russia's war in Ukraine, strong real wage growth, and recent fiscal stimulus.