The Bank of Thailand has shared key points from the International Monetary Fund’s 2025 Article IV consultation report on Thailand, which projects weaker growth and subdued inflation in 2026. The IMF estimates GDP growth slowed from 2.5% in 2024 to 2.1% in 2025 and expects a further decline to 1.6% in 2026 as external headwinds intensify, with inflation projected at 0.4% in 2026 before gradually rising thereafter. The report recommends a calibrated policy mix combining targeted fiscal support anchored in a credible medium-term consolidation strategy, additional monetary loosening, and financial policies to facilitate orderly household debt deleveraging and address an impaired credit channel. It also calls for accelerated structural reforms to lift productivity and competitiveness and support external rebalancing, noting that the Thai authorities broadly share the IMF’s assessment and emphasise fiscal discipline, improved monetary policy transmission, and structural reform to strengthen medium-term growth. The IMF staff team conducted the consultation with Thailand between 30 October and 13 November 2025.
Bank of Thailand 2026-02-14
Bank of Thailand highlights IMF Article IV outlook of 1.6% GDP growth in 2026 and calls for further monetary loosening
The Bank of Thailand noted the IMF's 2025 Article IV report, forecasting Thailand's GDP growth to slow from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.6% in 2026 amid external challenges, with 0.4% inflation in 2026. The report advises targeted fiscal support, monetary loosening, and structural reforms to boost productivity and competitiveness, with Thai authorities agreeing on fiscal discipline and improved policy transmission.