The Bank of Canada released the fourth-quarter 2025 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations, showing the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) indicator edged down and remained subdued as concerns over high prices and trade-conflict uncertainty continued to weigh on households. The decline was driven by a modest deterioration in perceived financial health and weaker spending intentions, while labour market perceptions improved slightly from low levels. Respondents reported a higher perceived likelihood of missing a debt payment and a slightly higher chance of losing their job, alongside a higher reported chance of finding a job or voluntarily leaving a job. Spending plans remained weak, with high prices, economic uncertainty and elevated housing costs still the most cited barriers, and three-quarters of consumers saying they would not pay more than an additional 10% for Canadian-made products; households with equity holdings reported less negative real spending expectations than those without. Inflation perceptions and one- and two-year expectations stayed above pre-pandemic levels, but long-term inflation expectations eased below the pre-pandemic average; tariffs remained the most frequently cited inflation driver, though less so than in the prior quarter, and about three-quarters of those citing tariffs expected their effects to persist for more than one year but fewer than five years.
Bank of Canada 2026-01-19
Bank of Canada survey shows consumer expectations index dips in Q4 2025 as debt payment and job-loss worries rise
The Bank of Canada's fourth-quarter 2025 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations indicates a slight decline in the CSCE indicator due to concerns over high prices and trade-conflict uncertainty, with modest deterioration in perceived financial health and spending intentions. Inflation perceptions remain above pre-pandemic levels, though long-term expectations have eased, and tariffs are still a significant inflation driver.