The National Bank of Ukraine published its September 2025 Business Outlook Survey showing businesses returning to a slightly positive economic outlook, with the composite business activity expectations index (BAEI) increasing to 50.4 from 49.0 in August and moving above the neutral level of 50. Improved sentiment was linked to sustained consumer demand, a stable energy situation, budgetary infrastructure and road spending, decelerating inflation and a stable foreign exchange market, while intensified missile and drone attacks, high reconstruction costs, higher tariffs and shortages of qualified staff continued to weigh on growth. Trading remained the most upbeat sector with an index of 54.0, supported by sufficient supply and demand and lower inflation, alongside expectations of higher turnover and procurement volumes and continued plans to cut trade margins. Construction expectations moved to neutral at 50.0 from 54.0, with firms still expecting higher volumes and orders but at a slower pace and planning to purchase fewer contractor services as those costs rise. Industry stayed slightly below neutral at 49.1, with firms expecting higher output, unchanged new orders, improved export-order expectations and, for the first time in six months, higher stocks of raw materials and supplies. Services improved but remained below neutral at 49.4, with firms expecting increases in services provided and new orders. On pricing, industrial and construction companies planned to raise selling prices, trading companies expected higher purchase costs, and services firms anticipated slower growth in supplier prices alongside persistently high selling prices. The survey ran from 3–22 September 2025 and covered 586 companies, and the next (October 2025) results are scheduled for publication on the first business day of November 2025.

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