The Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Kazakhstan left the base rate unchanged at 18.0% with a ±1 pp corridor, judging that moderately tight conditions, a stronger tenge and softer consumer demand are fostering disinflation yet that core inflation, still above the 5% target-consistent level, and high inflation expectations warrant caution. After a 150 bp hike to 18.0 % in October 2025, the rate has been on hold. Liquidity is being drained through higher minimum reserve requirements and mirroring FX operations, reinforcing the policy stance. Annual headline inflation eased to 11.0 % in March from 11.7 % in February, while monthly inflation slowed to 0.6 %; first-quarter GDP grew 3.0 % year on year, driven by construction, transport, manufacturing and trade, amid cooling retail lending. The firmer exchange rate is supporting disinflation, but external risks are mounting as Middle East tensions lift global energy, food and fertilizer prices, and elevated inflation abroad could raise import costs. The committee highlighted upside risks from the forthcoming end of the moratorium on utility and fuel prices, potential second-round effects from regulated-price increases and tax changes, and underscored the need for fiscal consolidation and calibrated quasi-fiscal stimulus. It will consider lowering the base rate in future meetings if the disinflation trend proves durable and no new shocks emerge.
National Bank of Kazakhstan 2026-04-24
National Bank of Kazakhstan keeps base rate unchanged at 18.0% (±1 pp corridor)
The Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Kazakhstan maintained the base rate at 18.0 % (±1 pp), noting headline inflation eased to 11.0 % in March and demand is softening but core inflation and expectations remain elevated. Liquidity is still being drained via higher reserve requirements and mirrored FX operations, and the committee said cuts will be considered only if the disinflation trend holds and external and regulated-price risks recede.