The European Central Bank published the aggregated results of its June 2026 Survey of Monetary Analysts, based on responses collected from 25 to 27 May from 71 participants. The median expectation is that the deposit facility rate remains at 2.25% through July 2026, rises to 2.50% by September 2026 and stays there into 2027Q2 before easing to 2.25% in 2027Q3 and to 2.00% in the long run. Probability responses point to the next deposit facility rate move being a 25 basis point increase, with an average probability of 85.2%, while the second move is more likely to be no change, with an average probability of 66.4%. On the macro outlook, respondents see euro area real GDP growth staying modest at 0.1% in 2026Q2, then at 0.2% to 0.3% per quarter through 2029, with long-run growth at 1.2% and unemployment broadly around 6.2% to 6.4%. Median HICP inflation is expected at 3.2% through 2026, falling to 3.0% in 2027Q1, 2.2% in 2027Q2 and 2.0% from 2027Q3 onward, while HICP excluding food and energy declines from 2.3% to 2.5% in 2026 and 2027 to 2.0% by 2028Q3. Respondents still judged risks to growth as mainly on the downside in 2026 and 2027, while risks to inflation were mainly on the upside over the same period. Balance sheet and liquidity expectations point to continued Eurosystem portfolio run-off and gradually rising refinancing demand. Median expectations put APP holdings at EUR 2,216 billion and PEPP holdings at EUR 1,320 billion at end-2026, with both stocks declining further in later years. Analysts assigned a 54.5% average probability to the Transmission Protection Instrument never being activated, and expected outstanding amounts under both main refinancing operations and longer-term refinancing operations to increase progressively through 2029.
European Central Bank2026-06-15
European Central Bank survey shows analysts expect one 25 basis point deposit facility rate increase by September and inflation back at 2 percent by 2027Q3
The European Central Bank’s June 2026 Survey of Monetary Analysts shows a median expectation that the deposit facility rate will rise from 2.25% to 2.50% by September 2026, with the next move most likely a 25 basis point increase and the following move most likely no change. Respondents expect euro area inflation to fall from 3.2% in 2026 to 2.0% from 2027Q3, while GDP growth remains modest. The survey also points to continued APP and PEPP run-off and a low likelihood of Transmission Protection Instrument activation.