European Central Bank publishes new job-to-job transition estimates to track euro area labour market tightness

The European Central Bank has published a research box in the ECB Economic Bulletin presenting new estimates of job-to-job transition rates for Germany, Spain and France, alongside a proxy for the euro area aggregate. The analysis positions job-to-job moves as a complement to standard labour market indicators for assessing labour market tightness and related wage and price inflation dynamics. Based on linked employer-employee administrative social security data, job-to-job transitions are measured as the share of workers who change employer between consecutive quarters without an intervening spell of unemployment. The estimates show a clear cyclical pattern across countries, with transitions falling in downturns and rising in booms, while levels differ across economies. Mobility is higher among lower-skilled occupations, which account for most of the variation in overall job-to-job movements; higher-skilled job movers represented 15% of the total transition rate in Spain in 2021, compared with 34% in France and 43% in Germany. Job changes are also more frequent among younger workers, and the ECB notes that demographic ageing is expected to reduce aggregate job-to-job transition rates over time. The box highlights a key limitation of administrative data availability with a time lag and points to combining administrative sources with the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey as a way to obtain more timely updates on job-to-job flows.