The South African Reserve Bank released its composite business cycle indicators for South Africa, showing the composite leading indicator increased by 0.9% in January 2025, while the composite coincident indicator was unchanged in December 2024 and the composite lagging indicator decreased by 0.1% in December 2024. The January rise in the leading indicator reflected increases in four of the ten available component series outweighing decreases in five, with one unchanged. The largest positive contributors were an acceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate of new passenger vehicles sold and an increase in residential building plans approved, while the largest negative contributors were fewer average hours worked per factory worker in manufacturing and a deceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in job advertisement space. The leading indicator stood at 114.4 (2019 = 100) in January, with a 12-month increase of 3.4%. For December, the coincident indicator held at 96.4 as higher real wholesale, retail and motor trade sales offset a decline in the industrial production index, while the lagging indicator edged down to 107.2. The next release is scheduled for 22 April 2025 at 09:00 A.M.
South African Reserve Bank 2025-03-25
South African Reserve Bank publishes business cycle indicators with the leading index up 0.9% in January 2025
The South African Reserve Bank reported a 0.9% increase in the composite leading indicator for January 2025, driven by gains in new passenger vehicle sales and residential building plans. The composite coincident indicator remained unchanged in December 2024, while the composite lagging indicator decreased by 0.1%. The leading indicator reached 114.4, marking a 3.4% rise over 12 months.