In a public statement published as an op-ed, United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Michael S. Selig outlined the Commission’s proposal to modernize Rule 40.11, which allows the agency to determine whether certain event contracts are contrary to the public interest. The proposal targets prediction markets and would set clearer criteria for when a contract is considered to involve restricted activities and how the Commission’s public policy review would apply. Under the proposal, war, terrorism and assassination would be interpreted broadly. War would cover all belligerent military activities, not only formally declared wars. Terrorism would include physical and non-physical attacks, including cyberattacks, whether inside or outside the United States. Assassination would cover any intentional killing of an individual. The amendments would also identify gaming-related contracts seen as posing heightened public policy risks, including player-injury contracts, officiating and altercation contracts, pre-collegiate sports contracts and casino-style games of chance. Selig said the Commission prioritized updates to Rule 40.11 after issuing an advanced notice of proposed rulemaking on whether new or amended rules for event contracts are needed and receiving thousands of comments. He also pointed to offshore platforms as a continuing gap because contracts that may be contrary to the public interest can still be offered outside the Commission’s remit.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission2026-06-10
United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposes clearer public interest standards for prediction market event contracts
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has proposed amendments to Rule 40.11 to modernize how it determines when event contracts, particularly prediction markets, are contrary to the public interest. The proposal would broaden interpretations of war, terrorism and assassination, and identify certain gaming-related contracts as posing heightened public policy risks. Chairman Michael S. Selig said the initiative follows extensive public feedback and highlighted gaps related to offshore platforms outside the Commission’s remit.