National Bank of Ukraine reports business outlook improves as activity expectations index rises to 51.8

The National Bank of Ukraine published its March 2025 Business Outlook Survey, showing businesses’ expectations for their own economic performance turned positive. The composite business activity expectations index rose to 51.8, moving above the neutral level of 50 for the first time in 11 months, supported by robust consumer demand, stepped-up production, international financial assistance, stabilized energy supplies and seasonal factors, while intensified attacks on critical facilities, exchange rate and inflation expectations and shortages of skilled workers continued to weigh. Trade recorded the most optimistic expectations with a sector index of 54.0, with respondents expecting higher turnover and purchases for resale while maintaining plans to cut trade margins. Industry improved to 53.1 on stronger expectations for output and new orders including export orders, while construction rose to 52.9 on seasonal effects and a return to expected increases in construction volumes and new orders. Services remained the most guarded at 48.8 despite improved expectations and, for the first time in ten months, an anticipated increase in services provided. Industrial and services companies expected slower growth in purchase prices and reported weaker intentions to raise selling prices, while construction and trade continued to report firm price growth expectations; staffing plans improved somewhat overall, led by construction, while trade and services reported slightly stronger intentions to reduce headcount. The survey covered 529 companies polled from 5 to 24 March 2025, and the next results (for April 2025) will be published on the first business day of May 2025.