The South African Reserve Bank published its latest composite business cycle indicators, reporting that the composite leading indicator decreased by 1.3% in May 2025, while the composite coincident and lagging indicators increased in April 2025. The leading indicator fell to 111.3 (2019 = 100) and reflected declines in nine of the ten available component series, with the largest negative contributions coming from fewer residential building plans approved and a lower volume of domestic orders in manufacturing. The only positive contribution was an increase in South Africa’s US dollar denominated export commodity price index. The coincident indicator rose by 0.7% in April 2025 to 95.2, supported by increases in the industrial production index and the real value of wholesale, retail and motor trade sales, while the lagging indicator increased by 0.3% to 107.3. The next release is scheduled for 26 August 2025 at 09:00.
South African Reserve Bank 2025-07-22
South African Reserve Bank updates composite business cycle indicators as leading indicator falls 1.3% in May 2025
The South African Reserve Bank reported a 1.3% decrease in the composite leading indicator for May 2025, driven by declines in residential building plans and domestic manufacturing orders. Conversely, the composite coincident and lagging indicators rose in April 2025, supported by industrial production and trade sales. The only positive contribution to the leading indicator was an increase in the US dollar-denominated export commodity index.