South African Reserve Bank reports composite leading business cycle indicator up 0.4% in January 2026

The South African Reserve Bank published updated composite business cycle indicators showing the composite leading indicator rising by 0.4% in January 2026 to 118.2 (2019 = 100). The composite coincident indicator fell by 0.2% in December 2025 to 95.4, while the composite lagging indicator increased by 0.1% to 105.8. The January rise in the leading indicator reflected increases in five of the 10 available component series, led by a higher US dollar based export commodity price index and an improvement in the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index, with additional support from average hours worked in manufacturing, building plans approved for larger residential units, and the leading indicator for major trading partner countries. The largest negative contributors were a deceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate of new passenger vehicles sold and a fall in the volume of domestic orders in manufacturing, alongside a narrowing interest rate spread, weaker real M1 growth, and fewer job advertisements. The coincident indicator decline was driven by lower industrial production and decreases in the real value of wholesale, retail and motor trade sales, and the Reserve Bank noted that the composite indicators are revised continuously as underlying component data are revised. The next release is scheduled for 28 April 2026 at 09:00.