Federal Reserve Bank of New York reports higher short-term inflation expectations and a series low in job-finding expectations in its December 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data published the December 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations, showing a rise in one-year-ahead inflation expectations while job market expectations deteriorated, including a new series low in perceived job-finding prospects. Measures of credit access and delinquency risk also worsened, even as respondents reported improved views of their current and future household financial situations. Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations increased 0.2 percentage point to 3.4%, while three-year and five-year-ahead expectations were unchanged at 3.0%; disagreement across respondents rose at the one-year and three-year horizons and inflation uncertainty increased at all horizons. Job-related indicators weakened, with the mean probability of losing one’s job rising 1.4 percentage points to 15.2% and the mean probability of finding a job after a loss falling 4.2 percentage points to 43.1%, driven by households with incomes below USD 100,000 and most pronounced among respondents over age 60 and those with a high school degree or less. Household finance measures showed tighter perceived and expected credit access, and the perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased 1.6 percentage points to 15.3%, the highest since April 2020, with the largest increases among older, lower-education, and lower-income respondents.