The Bank of Russia held its key rate at 14.00% on 11 September, citing significantly increased price pressures alongside moderate economic growth in 2026 Q3, while expecting underlying inflation to resume declining as temporary production-capacity constraints fade and demand grows moderately. The decision followed 300 basis points of cuts from 17.00% in September 2025, including a 25 bp reduction in July 2026. Annual inflation stood at 6.3% as of 7 September, and the central bank projects it at 6.0-7.0% in 2026 before returning to the 4.0% target in 2027. Lending activity has remained elevated, primarily in the corporate segment, while labour-market tightness is gradually easing. The Bank of Russia said risks from a deteriorating global outlook and rising global price pressures amid geopolitical tensions remain proinflationary. Further rate decisions will depend on inflation, inflation expectations and domestic and external risks, while a higher structural primary budget deficit could require tighter policy than assumed in the baseline scenario.
2026-09-11Central Bank of Russia
Central Bank of Russia Holds Key Rate at 14.00%
The Bank of Russia held its key rate at 14.00% on 11 September, citing increased price pressures and moderate economic growth in 2026 Q3. It expects inflation of 6.0-7.0% in 2026 before a return to the 4.0% target in 2027, with future decisions dependent on inflation, expectations, and domestic and external risks.