The South African Reserve Bank published updated composite business cycle indicators for South Africa, showing the composite leading indicator increased by 0.9% in July 2025, the composite coincident indicator rose by 0.3% in June 2025, and the composite lagging indicator fell by 0.5% in June 2025. The July increase in the leading indicator reflected increases in seven of 10 available components. The largest positive contributors were a higher US dollar export commodity price index and an acceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate of new passenger vehicle sales, while the largest negative contributors were a deceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate of real M1 and a narrowing in the 10-year government bond minus 91-day Treasury bill spread. The leading indicator stood at 113.7 (2019 = 100) in July, up 1.2% year on year; the coincident indicator rose to 96.6 in June (up 0.5% year on year) supported by higher real wholesale, retail and motor trade sales and industrial production, while the lagging indicator eased to 107.9 in June (down 0.9% year on year). The South African Reserve Bank noted that the composite indicators are revised continuously as underlying component series are revised. The next release is scheduled for 21 October 2025.
South African Reserve Bank 2025-09-23
South African Reserve Bank reports 0.9% rise in July composite leading business cycle indicator
The South African Reserve Bank released updated composite business cycle indicators, with the leading indicator rising by 0.9% in July 2025, driven by higher US dollar export commodity prices and vehicle sales. The coincident indicator increased by 0.3% in June 2025, while the lagging indicator decreased by 0.5% in the same month. The indicators are subject to continuous revision as component data are updated.