The Federal Reserve Board published an analysis measuring the share of consumption accounted for by direct consumer goods imports across 31 states covering 86% of the U.S. population. Based on 2023 expenditure and import data, the estimated share ranged from 13.8% in California and 12.7% in New Jersey to 2.6% in both Nebraska and Missouri. The population-weighted average was 7.1%. The estimates may partly reflect measurement issues, including the recording of distribution points as import destinations. Differences in imports of other durable goods, food and beverages, and furnishings and household equipment accounted for more than half of the variation between states. By source, China, the European Union and Mexico collectively explained almost 60%. Under an illustrative 10-percentage-point uniform tariff increase with full pass-through to consumer prices, the analysis estimated cost-of-living increases of about 1.4% in California, 0.8% in Pennsylvania and 0.3% in Nebraska. These estimates illustrate relative state exposure rather than the effects of recent tariffs, which have not been applied uniformly.
2026-09-03Federal Reserve Board
Federal Reserve Board analysis finds wide state variation in consumer import and tariff exposure
Federal Reserve Board analysis found that direct consumer goods imports represented between 2.6% and 13.8% of consumption across 31 states. Under an illustrative uniform 10-percentage-point tariff increase with full consumer-price pass-through, estimated cost-of-living effects ranged from about 0.3% in Nebraska to 1.4% in California.