In a new blog post, the Bank of France presented research showing that changes associated with generative AI exposure are appearing first in hiring and contract terminations rather than total employment. Among workers ages 21 to 29, permanent contract hires in the occupational quintile most exposed to generative AI were about 28% lower in March 2026 than in November 2022, compared with an 8% decline in the least exposed quintile. The gap narrowed for older age groups and almost disappeared among workers ages 50 and over. Permanent contract terminations among workers ages 21 to 29 also fell more in the most exposed occupations, by about 23% compared with 6% in the least exposed quintile. This indicates lower labor turnover and slower workforce renewal, as hiring declined more than separations. An analysis of about 6,000 firms, including nearly 600 reporting intensive AI use, similarly found weaker recruitment of young workers among intensive users but no statistically significant divergence in total employment. The findings are descriptive and do not isolate the effect of AI. Monetary tightening, the post-COVID technology sector correction and teleworking affected many of the same occupations, while firms’ AI use was measured only at the beginning of 2026. The research nevertheless indicates that monitoring total employment alone may miss early changes in entry level hiring, workforce renewal and opportunities for young workers to build skills through experience.
Bank of France finds 20 percentage point hiring gap for young workers in occupations most exposed to generative AI
The Bank of France found that permanent hiring of workers ages 21 to 29 fell 20 percentage points more in occupations most exposed to generative AI than in the least exposed occupations between November 2022 and March 2026. Contract terminations also declined, pointing to lower turnover rather than a clear fall in total employment. The analysis identifies an association but does not isolate AI from other labor market forces.