The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data released the November 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations. Median inflation expectations were unchanged across one-, three- and five-year horizons, while perceptions and expectations of household financial situations turned more negative and expected medical care cost growth rose to its highest level since January 2014. One-year-ahead inflation expectations held at 3.2%, with three-year and five-year expectations steady at 3.0%; disagreement declined at all horizons and inflation uncertainty was unchanged at the one-year and three-year horizons and lower at the five-year horizon. Expected home price growth remained 3.0% for a sixth consecutive month, while expected year-ahead price changes increased for food (to 5.9%), gas (to 4.1%), medical care (to 10.1%), college education (to 8.4%) and rent (to 8.3%). Labor market indicators improved modestly, with mean unemployment expectations down to 42.1%, the perceived probability of job loss down to 13.8% and the expected quit rate down to 17.7%, while expected earnings growth remained 2.6% and the perceived probability of finding a job after job loss rose to 47.3%. In household finance, expected income growth edged up to 2.9% and expected spending growth rose to 5.0%, perceptions of credit access deteriorated, the perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment increased to 13.7%, expected tax changes rose to 4.1% and expected government debt growth increased to 9.2%. The survey was fielded from November 1 through November 30, 2025 and is a nationally representative, internet-based rotating panel of about 1,200 household heads.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York 2025-12-08
Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases November 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations showing steady inflation expectations and a jump in expected medical cost inflation
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's November 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations reported stable median inflation expectations across one-, three-, and five-year horizons. Household financial perceptions worsened, and expected medical care cost growth rose to its highest since January 2014. Expected home price growth remained at 3.0%, with anticipated price increases for food, gas, medical care, college education, and rent. Labor market indicators showed modest improvement, with lower unemployment expectations and a higher perceived probability of finding a job after job loss.