The Federal Reserve Board published a note assessing the U.S. Census Bureau’s Business Trends and Outlook Survey as a near real-time source of detailed manufacturing data. The analysis finds that the biweekly survey tracks established indicators particularly well for prices and supplier delivery times, while its three-digit industry detail exposes differences among manufacturing subsectors that national aggregates conceal. Using data from January 2024 through July 2026, the note finds correlations of 0.91 with the Institute for Supply Management and 0.93 with S&P Global for input prices. Correlations were weaker for shipments, orders and employment, but established quantity indicators also diverged substantially from one another. This reflects the distinction between diffusion indices, which measure how broadly conditions are changing across firms, and output or value-based measures dominated by larger businesses. A case study of the 2025 tariff increases shows that subsectors facing greater net imported input cost exposure experienced higher input prices and modestly higher output prices, consistent with margin compression. Input price diffusion indices in selected subsectors peaked between 75 and 85, while output prices peaked near 65 in mid-2026. The note cautions that subsector samples exclude diversified manufacturers operating across multiple industries, which may leave the results more representative of smaller, specialized firms.

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