The International Monetary Fund published an analysis saying the global economy has so far withstood the Middle East war without signs of a broad slowdown, but the shock is being felt unevenly across countries and regions. Higher commodity prices, inflation and bond yields have not yet produced a global downturn, supported by strong momentum in the United States and China, anchored medium-term inflation expectations, resilient financial markets and technology-led investment. The IMF nonetheless said the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, damage to regional infrastructure and continued uncertainty leave material risks in place. The Fund said oil prices are about 30 percent above pre-war levels, with the burden falling most heavily on economies that are both reliant on energy imports and constrained in their policy response. Europe faces weaker growth and higher inflation from costlier imported energy, while emerging Asia has seen retail gasoline prices rise 40 percent since the war began alongside higher yields, currency depreciation and capital outflow pressure. In Africa, worsening external balances, tighter budgets and fuel shortages are already evident in countries including Ethiopia, Malawi and Zambia, while gasoline prices in Lesotho, Rwanda and Tanzania have risen by about half. Gulf oil exporters directly affected by the war are also under pressure, with five of eight countries facing outright contractions this year. The IMF said policymakers should prioritize price stability and fiscal discipline, with any support measures targeted, temporary and designed to preserve price signals. It will publish an updated assessment in its next World Economic Outlook Update on July 8. For members needing financing, the Fund said it will soon take proposals to its Executive Board to adjust existing programs, including requests or planned support involving The Gambia, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Malawi and Bangladesh.
International Monetary Fund2026-06-15
International Monetary Fund warns energy importers and countries with limited policy space are most exposed despite global resilience
The International Monetary Fund said the global economy has remained resilient through the Middle East war, but the impact is uneven and most acute for energy importers with limited policy space. It pointed to higher oil prices, inflation and financing pressures in Europe, emerging Asia and parts of Africa, while urging disciplined monetary and fiscal responses. The IMF will update its outlook on July 8 and is preparing program adjustments or new support for several member countries.