Bank of Italy publishes research finding digital payment intensity is associated with stronger provincial GDP performance in Italy

The Bank of Italy has published a paper in its Markets, Infrastructures, Payment Systems series examining whether greater use of digital payments is linked to stronger economic performance across Italian provinces over 2012 to 2023. Using granular indicators for card transactions, account-to-account (A2A) transfers and e-commerce activity, the study finds a robust positive association between digital payment intensity and nominal GDP per capita, while noting that the results are not strictly causal. The analysis draws on a new dataset combining Bank of Italy, Istat and Cerved sources and estimates a dynamic panel model using System-GMM to address endogeneity concerns. In the baseline specification, a 10% increase in per-capita card transactions is associated with a 0.33% rise in nominal GDP per capita, and a 10% increase in per-capita A2A digital transfers is associated with a 0.42% rise, while cash withdrawals and traditional bank transfers are not statistically significant in the preferred model. A separate “digital-intensity” specification suggests additional gains where a larger share of A2A transfers is initiated online and where a higher share of residents makes at least one online purchase, conditional on total payment volumes.