The World Bank has released its April 2026 Nigeria Development Update, arguing that recent reforms have strengthened macroeconomic fundamentals but that faster, more inclusive growth will depend on building productive capabilities through investments in people, starting in pregnancy and early childhood. The report notes Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.0% in 2025, driven mainly by services including ICT, financial services, and real estate. Inflation eased to 15.1% year-on-year in February 2026 from 26.3% a year earlier, supported by tight monetary policy, reduced exchange rate volatility, and improved food supply, while household incomes have not fully recovered and poverty remains high. Externally, the current account surplus reached 4.8% of GDP in 2025 and gross external reserves rose to USD 45.5 billion (8.7 months of imports). On the fiscal side, Federation Account receipts increased to 8.5% of GDP, while spending pressures widened the consolidated fiscal deficit to 3.1% of GDP. The World Bank expects the Middle East conflict to have mixed but manageable effects, recommending that fiscal policy use any oil windfall to rebuild buffers and provide targeted support while avoiding blanket subsidies, that monetary policy remain tight, and that exchange rate flexibility and clear policy communication help cushion shocks and anchor expectations. On early childhood development, the update highlights weak and unequal outcomes, including around 110 deaths per 1,000 children before age five, 40% stunting, and more than half of children not developmentally on track before school, and calls for an integrated package spanning nutrition, health, responsive caregiving, early learning, and living environments such as water and sanitation. Growth is projected at 4.2% over 2026–2028, while inflation is expected to decline gradually, more slowly than previously expected due to pressures linked to the Middle East conflict.
World Bank 2026-04-07
World Bank publishes Nigeria Development Update urging early childhood development investment as growth holds at 4.0% and inflation falls to 15.1%
The World Bank’s April 2026 Nigeria Development Update finds that recent reforms have strengthened macroeconomic fundamentals, with 4.0% growth in 2025, easing inflation at 15.1% year-on-year in February 2026, a current account surplus of 4.8% of GDP, and gross external reserves of USD 45.5 billion. It recommends maintaining tight monetary policy, using any oil windfall to rebuild fiscal buffers and provide targeted support while avoiding blanket subsidies, and preserving exchange rate flexibility and clear communication. The report projects growth of 4.2% over 2026–2028 and stresses that faster, more inclusive growth will require stronger early childhood development.