International Monetary Fund staff issued an end-of-mission statement for the 2026 Article IV consultation with Qatar, finding that the economy has remained resilient and that the medium-term outlook is supported by planned liquefied natural gas expansion and continued non-hydrocarbon growth under the Third National Development Strategy. Growth was estimated at 2.4 percent in 2024, around 3 percent through the third quarter of 2025 and expected to average around 4 percent over the medium term, with inflation projected at around 2 percent and fiscal and external current account surpluses expected to continue. The statement highlighted risks from weaker global growth, tighter financial conditions, geopolitical tensions, uncertainty over LNG market oversupply and climate stress, while noting upside potential from accelerated reforms and LNG expansion. On fiscal policy, staff encouraged faster revenue diversification including introduction of a value-added tax, improved spending efficiency, greater transparency of domestic gas pricing, and adoption of a full-fledged medium-term fiscal framework with a fiscal anchor aimed at ensuring intergenerational equity and complemented by stronger transparency and risk management; recent pension reforms were welcomed, with a call for enhanced actuarial transparency. Qatar Central Bank policy rate changes were assessed as aligned with the U.S. Federal Reserve in line with the U.S. dollar peg, and strengthening operational capacity and implementing IMF technical assistance recommendations were flagged as priorities for supporting the peg and market development; supervisors were also urged to maintain vigilance over banks’ real estate exposures, increased net foreign liabilities and public sector interconnectedness, and to consider a positive neutral countercyclical capital buffer, more diversified and longer-maturity bank funding, continued domestic market deepening under the Third Financial Sector Strategy, and safeguards as financial inclusion and digitalization expand. The mission visited Doha during January 25–February 5, 2026, and staff will submit a report for management approval ahead of an IMF Executive Board discussion scheduled for March 2026.
International Monetary Fund 2026-02-12
International Monetary Fund staff completes Qatar Article IV mission and recommends introducing VAT and a countercyclical capital buffer
The International Monetary Fund staff's end-of-mission statement for the 2026 Article IV consultation with Qatar noted economic resilience supported by liquefied natural gas expansion and non-hydrocarbon growth, with medium-term growth expected to average 4 percent. The statement highlighted risks from global factors and recommended fiscal diversification, improved spending efficiency, and enhanced transparency, while aligning Qatar Central Bank policy with the U.S. Federal Reserve to support the U.S. dollar peg.