The Bank of Canada published its second-quarter Market Participants Survey, based on responses from about 26 financial market participants collected from June 11 to 18. Median forecasts put year-over-year real GDP growth at 1.3% at the end of 2026 and 1.9% at the end of 2027, while total consumer price index inflation is expected to ease from 2.6% to 2.1% and settle at 2% five years ahead. Participants expect the policy rate to remain at 2.25% through December 2026, with the median forecast rising to 2.5% in March 2027 and 2.75% by the third quarter. Forty percent viewed rate risks as skewed toward a higher path, compared with 28% toward a lower path. Trade tensions dominated the economic outlook, cited by 96% as a downside risk and their easing by 92% as an upside risk. Nearly all respondents assessed the economy as operating below potential, while the median probability of recession was 25% over both the next zero to six months and six to 12 months.
Bank of Canada2026-07-27
Bank of Canada survey finds participants expect a 2.25% policy rate through 2026 and 1.3% GDP growth
The Bank of Canada’s survey of market participants shows median expectations for the policy rate to remain at 2.25% through 2026 before rising to 2.75% in the third quarter of 2027. Respondents forecast GDP growth of 1.3% and inflation of 2.6% at the end of 2026, with trade tensions the dominant risk to the outlook.