The National Bank of Serbia published a speech by Governor Jorgovanka Tabakovic delivered at the presentation of the International Monetary Fund’s Regional Economic Outlook for Europe, which focuses on growth prospects amid rising trade tensions, protectionism and higher government spending. Tabakovic used the IMF’s analysis and the Serbia country assessment to argue that stronger monetary, fiscal and macroprudential frameworks, backed by fiscal and external buffers, help curb inflation and preserve financial stability during global shocks. She highlighted IMF policy prescriptions centred on efficient resource use, deepening the single market and aligning national and European reforms, alongside maintaining an open trade policy with temporary and targeted support measures. The speech cited IMF estimates that reducing internal trade barriers by 1.25 percentage points or external barriers by 3.5 percentage points could fully offset the effect of US tariffs on EU exports, and warned that without structural reforms and fiscal consolidation Europe’s public debt could approach 130% of gross domestic product by 2040. For Serbia, Tabakovic referenced the IMF’s view that significant fiscal and external buffers, including high foreign exchange reserves and government deposits, a resilient banking sector and moderate public debt mitigate risks, and noted that Serbia’s foreign exchange reserves have risen since the pandemic while public debt has been on a downward trajectory, reaching 43.2% of GDP. She also pointed to Serbia’s 2015–2017 fiscal consolidation alongside cumulative real GDP growth of 7%, a drop in inflation from 12.2% at end-2012 to 2.2% in October 2013, benchmark rate cuts totalling 775 basis points, a stable dinar-euro exchange rate, and gold holdings at about 20% of foreign exchange reserves.
National Bank of Serbia 2025-11-06
National Bank of Serbia Governor Tabakovic ties Serbia’s disinflation and debt decline to coordinated fiscal and monetary policy in IMF outlook speech
Governor Jorgovanka Tabakovic of the National Bank of Serbia stressed the importance of strong monetary, fiscal, and macroprudential frameworks in mitigating inflation and maintaining financial stability amid global shocks at the IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook for Europe. She highlighted IMF recommendations on resource efficiency, market integration, and trade policy, noting that reducing trade barriers could offset US tariffs on EU exports. Tabakovic also underscored Serbia's fiscal resilience, citing increased foreign exchange reserves and a declining public debt trajectory.