South African Reserve Bank reports leading business cycle indicator up 0.4% in June 2025 as coincident and lagging indicators rise in May

The South African Reserve Bank published updated composite business cycle indicators showing the composite leading indicator increased by 0.4% in June 2025 to 111.7 (2019 = 100), with gains in three of the seven available components outweighing declines in the other four. The composite coincident indicator rose by 0.5% in May 2025 to 95.8, while the composite lagging indicator increased by 1.0% in May to 108.3. The main positive drivers of the June leading indicator move were an acceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate of real M1 and a rise in South Africa’s US dollar denominated export commodity price index, alongside an increase in the composite leading indicator for major trading-partner countries. Offsetting factors included a narrowing of the interest rate spread between 10-year government bonds and 91-day Treasury bills, a deceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate of new passenger vehicles sold, fewer building plans approved for larger residential units, and weaker job advertisements. On a 12-month basis, the leading indicator was down 0.5% in June, the coincident indicator was up 0.1% in May, and the lagging indicator was down 1.3% in May. The next release is scheduled for 23 September 2025 at 09:00.