Central Bank of Nigeria publishes January 2025 business expectations survey showing broad optimism and naira appreciation expectations

The Central Bank of Nigeria released its January 2025 Business Expectations Survey, reporting that respondent firms were optimistic about the macroeconomy and their own operations, which the report links to a positive outlook on the exchange rate and expected improvements in business activity. Firms also reported a positive outlook for employment and expansion across the review periods. The overall macroeconomic confidence index was 18.9 for January 2025, rising to 25.2 for the next month, 35.9 for the next three months and 43.3 for the next six months, with all broad sectors optimistic and industry recording the highest optimism. By sector, confidence on own operations was highest in mining and quarrying (25.0), followed by manufacturing (14.4) and agriculture (13.4). Expectations for volume of business activity remained positive (30.4 for the next month, 36.1 for the next three months and 45.4 for the next six months), while the financial condition index (-1.6) and credit access index (-10.0) were negative; top constraints were high interest rates (75.0), insecurity (74.3) and insufficient power supply (73.9). Overall average capacity utilisation was 56.8%, led by mining and quarrying, and the Northeast was the most optimistic region on the current-month macroeconomic outlook. The survey was conducted from 13 to 17 January 2025 with a sample of 1,900 enterprises across industry, services and agriculture and a 99.7% response rate. The report notes that results reflect respondents’ views and do not represent the Central Bank of Nigeria.