Federal Reserve Bank of New York reports slightly improved labor market expectations and lower one-year inflation expectations in January consumer survey

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data published the January 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations, showing unchanged inflation expectations at medium- and longer-term horizons but a decline in one-year-ahead expectations, alongside modest improvements in households’ labor market expectations. Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations fell 0.3 percentage point to 3.1%, while three-year and five-year expectations held at 3.0%; disagreement was unchanged at the one-year and five-year horizons and decreased at three years. Inflation uncertainty declined at one and three years but rose at five years, and median expected home price growth edged down to 2.9%, the lowest since July 2023. On labor markets, median expected earnings growth rose 0.2 percentage point to 2.7% (driven by households earning under USD 50,000), the mean probability of job loss over 12 months fell to 14.8%, and the mean probability of finding a job within three months after a job loss rose to 45.6%; mean unemployment expectations increased slightly to 41.9%. In household finance, spending growth expectations were unchanged at 4.9%, expected credit availability and perceptions of credit access deteriorated, and the average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months declined to 13.7%.