The Portuguese Securities Commission (CMVM) has published its Risk Outlook for 2026, outlining its assessment of the most significant risks expected to affect financial markets amid uncertainty driven by geopolitical and trade tensions, moderate economic growth and developments in major market indices. The report keeps capital markets risk and operational risk at elevated levels, with an upward outlook for both. Market risk continues to reflect the potential for a price adjustment linked to the geopolitical context and its macroeconomic effects, with an unchanged semi-upward outlook. Liquidity and credit risks remain assessed at a medium level with a stable outlook, influenced by the same backdrop through potential market repricing and funding costs. Operational risk, largely linked to cybersecurity, remains elevated but its outlook is revised from stable to upward, citing increased digitalisation and a growing incidence of cyberattacks. The thematic analysis focuses on Portuguese-domiciled equity collective investment undertakings’ exposure to external economic shocks and global supply chain disruptions, based on their exposure to issuers in countries particularly affected by United States tariff measures and data on the geographical origin of revenues and financial results. CMVM indicated an English version of the report will be made available in due course.

Original source View in tracker