National Bank of Ukraine publishes December business outlook survey showing activity expectations index at 49.2

The National Bank of Ukraine released its December 2025 Business Outlook Survey, showing businesses maintained restrained expectations for current economic performance. The composite business activity expectations index (BAEI) edged down to 49.2 from 49.4 in November, remaining below the neutral 50 level, but was well above 45.9 in December 2024 and marked the highest December reading since the survey began. Respondents cited a worsening security situation, prolonged power outages, higher production costs, damaged production and logistics facilities, skilled staff shortages and seasonal factors as key drags, while sustained consumer demand, international assistance, increased food supplies and slowing inflation were supportive. By sector, trade remained the most optimistic with an index of 52.2, services improved toward neutral at 49.8, construction turned more negative at 47.6 amid seasonal conditions and outages, and industry stayed the most constrained at 46.5 due to outages, cost pressures and labour shortages. Construction and trade firms reported intentions to raise selling prices more moderately, while industrial and services firms expected faster growth in purchase prices and expressed firmer intentions to increase selling prices; labour market expectations eased overall, with construction and trade upbeat on staffing, and industry and services still cautious. The survey was conducted from 4–23 December 2025 and covered 603 companies. The next (January 2026) survey results are scheduled for release on the first business day of February 2026.