The South African Reserve Bank has published an Economic Note assessing the macroeconomic impact of South Africa’s refinery closures. The analysis finds that refining capacity has halved over the past decade, leaving operational capacity at about 250,000 barrels per day and imported refined products supplying more than half of domestic fuel demand. Petroleum related manufacturing output has fallen by roughly 20% since 2019, while an estimated 2,150 direct jobs have been lost and about 3,300 indirect jobs put at risk. Greater reliance on higher cost refined fuel imports has increased exposure to global prices, shipping disruptions and rand volatility. The analysis estimates that the oil import bill could have been ZAR 76 billion lower between 2021 and 2024 if refined products had been limited to 25% of oil imports. Refinery closures do not mechanically increase fuel inflation because domestic pump prices already reference international refined product prices, but a larger import bill can weaken the trade balance and rand, indirectly raising inflation. The note points to diversified sourcing, strategic stockholding, regulatory reform and targeted logistics and storage upgrades as necessary components of a more secure fuel supply system.
2026-09-08South African Reserve Bank
South African Reserve Bank analysis finds refinery closures have halved capacity and jeopardized 5,400 jobs
A South African Reserve Bank analysis finds that refinery closures have halved domestic capacity, pushed refined fuel imports above half of demand and jeopardized about 5,400 direct and indirect jobs. It estimates that a lower share of refined product imports could have reduced the 2021-2024 oil import bill by ZAR 76 billion. Import dependence also increases exposure to global supply shocks, rand weakness and indirect inflation pressures.