The National Bank of Serbia published results from its July inflation expectations survey, showing higher short-term inflation expectations among both financial sector respondents and economic representatives, while medium-term expectations were broadly stable. The central bank noted that one-year-ahead financial sector expectations have remained within the limits of its target for more than a year and a half. In the Ninamedia July survey, the financial sector’s one-year-ahead inflation expectations increased to 3.8% from 3.5% in June. In the August Bloomberg poll, the financial sector’s one-year expectations were 3.6%, up from 3.4% in July. Short-term inflation expectations of economic representatives rose to 6.0% in July from 5.0% in June. For longer horizons in the Ninamedia survey, the financial sector’s two-year-ahead expectations increased to 3.5% from 3.2%, while three-year-ahead expectations edged down to 3.1% from 3.2%; the economy’s medium-term expectations were unchanged at 5.0% in July and have been in the 4.0% to 5.0% range since the end of 2023. The National Bank of Serbia reiterated that it has been publishing monthly inflation expectations for the financial sector, the economy, trade unions and households since May 2015, alongside supporting time series and survey documentation.
National Bank of Serbia 2025-08-19
National Bank of Serbia publishes inflation expectations survey with one-year financial sector expectations rising to 3.8% and economy short-term expectations to 6.0%
The National Bank of Serbia's July survey shows rising short-term inflation expectations among financial sector respondents and economic representatives, while medium-term expectations remain stable. The financial sector's one-year-ahead expectations increased to 3.8% in July, and economic representatives' short-term expectations rose to 6.0%. The central bank noted that one-year-ahead expectations have stayed within its target range for over 18 months.