In opening remarks for the 13th Asian Monetary Policy Forum, the Monetary Authority of Singapore said Asian trade has so far remained resilient despite the 2025 tariff shock, but warned that this should not be read as evidence that the effects of tariffs have been neutralised. The speech said US tariffs have redirected sourcing toward other Asian partners and deepened regional production networks rather than causing a broad collapse in trade, with ASEAN trade rising across major regions and total manufactured exports up by nearly 14%. MAS nonetheless stressed that tariffs still raise inflation, distort supply chains, reduce productivity and can create material short and medium term dislocations for specific industries and labour markets, while also weakening the diversification benefits of a rules-based trading system. The speech also identified the oil shock linked to the Middle East conflict as the more immediate concern for governments and central banks, particularly in small open Asian economies that are large energy importers. MAS said policymakers should watch for indirect and second-round inflation effects, alongside fiscal and financial stability risks, and noted that supply-side measures, energy security planning and investment in renewable energy are more relevant than macro demand management alone. On technology, it described artificial intelligence as a burst-like innovation shock whose productivity gains will take time to emerge, with current support to growth coming more from capital spending and with financing vulnerabilities visible in private credit. The forum itself will examine Europe’s place in the global economy, strains on the international monetary system, the political economy of trade policy, and the financial stability effects of higher borrowing costs, market repricing and wider credit spreads.
Monetary Authority of Singapore2026-05-22
Monetary Authority of Singapore warns at Asian Monetary Policy Forum that trade resilience may not last amid tariff oil and technology shocks
The Monetary Authority of Singapore, in opening remarks at the 13th Asian Monetary Policy Forum, said Asian trade has remained resilient despite the 2025 tariff shock, with ASEAN trade and manufactured exports rising, but warned that tariffs still raise inflation, distort supply chains and weaken rules-based trade. MAS identified the oil shock from the Middle East conflict as a more immediate concern, urging close monitoring of second-round inflation and stability risks and emphasising supply-side and energy security measures.