The National Bank of Ukraine published its January 2026 Business Outlook Survey, showing businesses downgraded expectations for their economic performance, largely reflecting seasonal factors and disruptions linked to energy and logistics. The composite business activity expectations index (BAEI) fell to 41.3 from 49.2 in December 2025, while remaining slightly above 41.0 in January 2025. Subdued expectations were attributed to intensified attacks on energy and logistics infrastructure, energy shortages, higher costs for backup power supplies, logistical hurdles, a shortage of qualified staff, and worsening exchange rate expectations, with ongoing international financial assistance and slowing inflation cited as supportive factors. Sectoral indices remained below the neutral level of 50, including industry at 41.7, construction at 37.9, trade at 40.0, and services at 42.1; respondents across sectors also reported plans to raise selling prices further and, compared with the previous month, intentions to reduce workforces, most strongly in industry. The survey was conducted from 5 January to 22 January 2026 and covered 594 companies, with the NBU noting the results reflect respondents’ opinions rather than the central bank’s assessments. The next survey results, covering February 2026, are scheduled for publication on the first business day of March 2026.
National Bank of Ukraine 2026-02-02
National Bank of Ukraine reports January 2026 business expectations weaken as BAEI falls to 41.3
The National Bank of Ukraine's January 2026 Business Outlook Survey indicates a decline in business expectations due to seasonal factors and disruptions in energy and logistics, with the composite business activity expectations index dropping to 41.3 from 49.2 in December 2025. Sectoral indices remained below the neutral level of 50, and businesses reported plans to increase prices and reduce workforces, particularly in the industry sector.