The National Bank of Belgium (NBB) published its latest Business Echo based on interviews with business leaders, finding that Belgian economic activity continued to grow at a moderate pace over the summer but that sentiment remains cautious amid global uncertainty. Interviewees reported that the impact of United States tariffs on Belgian firms has so far been contained, yet expectations for the near term were limited to moderate growth at best. Confidence is being held back by slower consumer spending, expectations that public spending will stagnate or contract, and less predictable business conditions that complicate long-term planning. Input costs are broadly stable for most firms, but high labour and energy costs continue to weigh on margins and competitiveness, while sales prices remain largely flat amid intense competition and consumer price sensitivity. Labour demand appears resilient, with most firms hiring at a measured pace, ongoing difficulties recruiting technical profiles and easing wage pressures. Investment is reported to be tempered and focused on maintenance and efficiency, with expansion projects often postponed or scaled back, and financing conditions not widely seen as a binding constraint. Sector conditions remain uneven, with manufacturing still under severe pressure, particularly petrochemicals facing historically low capacity utilisation, while pharmaceuticals are robust near term but face a more uncertain longer-term outlook and defence benefits from rising demand; construction is historically weak for residential new builds with renovation activity providing some support; retailers face subdued household spending and price competition; logistics and warehousing are broadly stable but with thin margins; real estate has bottomed out with recovering existing home sales but new projects constrained by financing conditions, permitting issues and regulatory complexity; and business-related services report slowing activity and margin pressure, prompting faster digitalisation and cost-cutting. Looking ahead to early 2026, respondents expect economic conditions to remain largely unchanged, with households and firms staying cautious on spending and investment and structural challenges persisting, particularly in manufacturing, construction and retail.
National Bank of Belgium 2025-12-02
National Bank of Belgium Business Echo reports moderate growth but cautious outlook into early 2026
The National Bank of Belgium's latest Business Echo shows moderate summer growth in Belgian economic activity amid global uncertainty. Despite stable input costs, high labour and energy expenses impact margins, with uneven sector conditions—manufacturing under pressure and construction weak. By early 2026, economic conditions are expected to remain largely unchanged, with persistent structural challenges in manufacturing, construction, and retail.