Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases February Survey of Consumer Expectations as one-year inflation expectations fall to 3.0% and delinquency expectations improve

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data published the February 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations, showing slightly lower one-year-ahead inflation expectations and broadly softer labor market sentiment, alongside improved expectations for future credit access and a lower perceived risk of missing minimum debt payments. Median one-year inflation expectations edged down 0.1 percentage point to 3.0%, while three-year and five-year expectations held at 3.0%; disagreement and inflation uncertainty both declined across horizons. In labor market measures, median expected earnings growth fell 0.2 percentage point to 2.5%, the mean probability the unemployment rate will be higher in a year dropped 2.0 percentage points to 39.9%, and the expected quit rate declined 2.8 percentage points to a series low of 15.9%, while the probability of finding a job within three months if displaced slipped to 44.0%. On household finance, the perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months fell 2.1 percentage points to 11.6%, its lowest level since February 2024; income growth expectations stayed at 2.9% and spending growth expectations at 4.9%, with credit access perceived slightly worse than a year ago but expected to improve over the next year. The survey was fielded from February 2 through February 28, 2026.