The National Bank of Georgia (NBG) kept its refinancing rate unchanged at 8.0 percent at the 25 March Monetary Policy Committee meeting, citing heightened Middle-East tensions and Hormuz-related supply disruptions that have lifted global energy and shipping costs and pushed the economy into a “high-inflation risk” scenario even though February headline inflation eased to 4.6 percent and core and expectations remain near the 3 percent target. The rate has been held at 8 percent at every meeting since at least March 2025. The NBG warned that the recent oil-price spike is already feeding into domestic prices and now expects short-term inflation to rise above its central forecast before converging to target from Q2 2026, with the medium-term path hinging on the scale and persistence of external price shocks. It noted that Georgia’s sovereign risk premium remains low, partially offsetting external pressures, but flagged the danger of imported inflation and potential capital outflows should advanced-economy central banks tighten policy. The committee pledged close monitoring and said it is ready to keep the stance tight for longer or raise rates if second-round effects materialise, while allowing that rapid easing of geopolitical tensions and lower energy prices could eventually permit policy loosening.
National Bank of Georgia 2026-03-25
NBG holds refinancing rate at 8.0% (25 Mar)
The National Bank of Georgia kept its refinancing rate at 8.0 % at the 25 March MPC meeting, warning that Middle-East tensions and Hormuz-linked energy and shipping shocks have pushed the economy into a high-inflation-risk scenario. While February CPI eased to 4.6 %, the bank now expects short-term inflation to overshoot before returning to the 3 % target from Q2 2026 and said it will keep policy tight or raise rates if second-round effects arise.