Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas updates Energy Survey as executives expect Strait of Hormuz traffic to normalize by August 2026 and US oil output to rise in 2026–27

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas published an update to the first quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey based on a new, six-question pulse survey of energy executives following recent developments in the global oil market. The update captures industry expectations for the normalization of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the likelihood of further disruptions, and the implications for Persian Gulf production, US output, shipping costs and sector employment. On Hormuz transit, 39% of executives expect traffic to return to normal by August 2026, with 26% selecting November 2026, 20% May 2026 and 14% later than November 2026. Most respondents view renewed disruption as likely within five years, with 48% calling it “very likely” and 38% “somewhat likely.” On shut-in Persian Gulf production, 64% expect at least “more than 90%” to return eventually, including 32% anticipating a full return. Regarding the Iran war’s effects on US output, 70% expect production to increase in 2026, most commonly by more than 0 but not more than 0.25 mb/d (43%), and more than three-quarters expect an increase in 2027, most commonly by more than 0.25 but not more than 0.50 mb/d (32%). Employment expectations from December 2025 to December 2026 were mostly stable, with 59% selecting no change, while shipping costs from the Persian Gulf were generally expected to rise after the conflict ends, most often by more than USD 2 but not more than USD 4 per barrel (36%). The survey covered oil and gas companies headquartered in the Eleventh Federal Reserve District and collected responses from 120 firms, comprising 78 exploration and production companies and 42 oilfield services firms.