The National Bank of Serbia’s Executive Board kept the reference interest rate unchanged at 5.75% and also left the deposit facility rate at 4.5% and the credit facility rate at 7.0%. The decision was guided by inflation outcomes and the domestic and international factors shaping its outlook. Inflation stabilised in late 2025 slightly below the central value of the 3 ± 1.5% target band, and the Executive Board expects inflation to stay around the target’s midpoint until March 2026 while a regulation limiting wholesale and retail trade margins remains in force, and to remain within the band through end-2026 and over the medium term. The release pointed to potential disinflationary support from proposed systemic laws aimed at preventing unfair trading practices, easing external cost pressures and a better agricultural season, while noting upward effects from stronger disposable income and base effects. It also highlighted heightened external uncertainty from geopolitical tensions, protectionism and market sensitivity to public debt sustainability, and noted risks to parts of Serbia’s processing industry, alongside a 2025 real GDP growth estimate of 2.0% led by services and industry. The next Executive Board meeting to discuss economic developments and decide on the reference interest rate is scheduled for 12 February.
National Bank of Serbia 2026-01-12
National Bank of Serbia holds reference rate at 5.75% as inflation remains around the 3% target
The National Bank of Serbia's Executive Board maintained the reference interest rate at 5.75%, with inflation stabilizing below the 3 ± 1.5% target band and expected to remain around the midpoint until March 2026. The Board highlighted potential disinflationary support from systemic laws and external factors, while noting risks from geopolitical tensions and market sensitivity to public debt sustainability.