European Central Bank publishes November Consumer Expectations Survey showing steady inflation expectations and weaker growth and housing outlook

The European Central Bank published the November results of its Consumer Expectations Survey, showing that euro area consumers’ median inflation perceptions and expectations were unchanged across all reported horizons, while the broader outlook softened through lower expected spending growth, more negative growth expectations and slightly lower housing and mortgage-rate expectations. Median perceived inflation over the past 12 months held at 3.1% for a tenth consecutive month, while median inflation expectations remained at 2.8% for the next 12 months, 2.5% three years ahead and 2.2% five years ahead, with unchanged uncertainty around the 12‑month inflation outlook. Expected nominal income growth over the next 12 months stayed at 1.2%; perceived spending growth rose to 5.0% and expected spending growth edged down to 3.4%. Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months declined to -1.3%, while expected unemployment 12 months ahead fell to 10.9%. Home price growth expectations eased to 3.4% and expected mortgage interest rates declined to 4.6%; the net share of households reporting tighter credit access over the past 12 months decreased, while expectations for tighter credit conditions over the next 12 months were unchanged. The release of the survey’s December results is scheduled for 30 January 2026.