The National Bank of Serbia published its review of global financial market developments for 1 to 5 June 2026, showing that the USD strengthened, EUR/USD fell 1.20% to 1.1532, and US and German government bond yields rose as renewed Middle East tensions coincided with stronger US economic releases. The note links the move in US rates mainly to labour market and activity data that exceeded expectations. US non-farm payrolls rose by 172,000 in May against an 88,000 consensus, April job openings increased to 7.618 million, and ISM manufacturing and services both improved. Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the two-year yield up about 14 basis points to 4.15% and the 10-year yield up about 9 basis points to 4.53%, while German two-year and 10-year yields increased about 16 and 10 basis points to 2.69% and 3.04%. In the euro area, preliminary May inflation accelerated to 3.2% year on year and core inflation to 2.5%, while first-quarter GDP was revised to a 0.2% quarter-on-quarter contraction. The review says the inflation data support expectations of a 25 basis point European Central Bank rate increase at the 11 June meeting. Gold weakened and Brent crude remained supported by geopolitical risk and lower US crude inventories.
National Bank of Serbia2026-06-09
National Bank of Serbia publishes weekly market review with EUR/USD down 1.20% and higher US and German yields
The National Bank of Serbia reviewed global markets for 1–5 June 2026, noting a stronger USD, a 1.20% fall in EUR/USD to 1.1532, and higher US and German government bond yields amid renewed Middle East tensions and stronger US data. It highlights upside surprises in US labour and activity indicators, rising Treasury and Bund yields, and euro area inflation at 3.2% year on year with core at 2.5%, supporting expectations of a 25 basis point ECB rate increase at the 11 June meeting. The review also reports weaker gold prices and Brent crude supported by geopolitical risk and lower US crude inventories.