The Czech Republic Ministry of Finance released its January 2026 Macroeconomic Forecast, estimating that real GDP rose by 2.5% in 2025 and will grow by 2.4% in 2026, with growth driven almost exclusively by domestic demand. Average inflation is forecast to ease from 2.5% in 2025 to 2.1% in 2026. Domestic demand strength in 2025 is linked to higher household consumption as real incomes rose and the savings rate fell, alongside public investment supported by the Recovery and Resilience Facility and accelerated use of European Structural and Investment Funds; the foreign trade balance is expected to have weighed on growth due to higher imports. For 2026, household consumption is expected to remain a key driver and corporate investment to revive, but exports are seen constrained by higher trade barriers and weak export orders, keeping net exports negative. Inflation is expected to be pulled down by energy-related factors, including the shift of the supported energy sources fee to the state budget and lower regulated electricity prices, while wage growth and services costs including owner-occupied housing and rents remain upside pressures; the unemployment rate is projected at 2.8% in both 2025 and 2026, the current account surplus to narrow from 0.6% of GDP in 2025 to 0.3% in 2026, and the general government deficit to be 2% of GDP in 2025 with debt reaching 44.6% of GDP. An English version of the forecast is due in the week of 26 January; the Ministry noted the forecast is published quarterly and includes a 2026 forecast with selected indicators extending to 2028.

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