The Bank of Italy has published seven new Occasional Papers covering macro-financial conditions, production networks, education and statistical methods. The papers examine how demographic change affects Italian house prices, argue that the Bank of Italy’s balance sheet operated de facto as a monetary policy tool through much of the 20th century, map Italian firms’ exposure to the European automotive supply chain, assess who enrolls in online universities and with what outcomes, study how peers’ parental background shapes university enrollment, analyze how faculty characteristics affect student retention, and propose a Bayesian vector autoregression method to forecast unquoted equity issued by non-financial corporations in the financial accounts. Among the main findings, the housing paper estimates a long-run house-price elasticity to population of about 0.7 to 0.8, with stronger effects in non-internal areas and urban municipalities in the Center-North. The historical monetary policy paper finds balance sheet expansions were associated with higher output, trade and inflation and continued to matter alongside policy rates from the early 1980s. The automotive paper identifies around 8,000 Italian firms with significant exposure to the European Union automotive industry and estimates that a 1 percent fall in final demand for cars would reduce value added by EUR 63 million among final producers in Italy and by a further EUR 93 million upstream. The education papers find that online universities attract older and academically weaker students but are associated, conditional on observables, with lower dropout and higher on-time completion at bachelor’s level, while performance worsens for students moving from an online bachelor’s degree to a traditional master’s course. Separate studies show that peers’ parental education has a stronger positive effect on university enrollment when paired with higher-status occupations, especially in non-academic schools and among students from non-graduate families, and that younger professors improve retention for all students while female faculty improve retention for female students. The financial accounts paper reports that the proposed Bayesian VAR performs well out of sample against five alternative forecasting approaches.
Bank of Italy2026-07-24
Bank of Italy releases seven Occasional Papers on housing, balance sheet policy, supply chains and higher education
The Bank of Italy has issued seven new Occasional Papers spanning housing, monetary policy history, industrial supply chains, higher education and financial accounts methods. Key findings include a long-run house-price elasticity to population of about 0.7 to 0.8, evidence that the Bank of Italy’s balance sheet acted as a monetary policy tool across the 20th century, and an estimate that a 1 percent fall in European Union car demand would cut Italian value added by EUR 63 million at final producers and EUR 93 million upstream. The education papers also find that online universities broaden access for weaker-prepared students, while peer parents’ background and faculty gender and age affect enrollment and retention outcomes.