The OECD has published an Economics Department working paper setting out early research on how artificial intelligence may interact with population ageing across OECD economies. The paper argues that AI could lift productivity, ease labour and skill shortages, and partly offset the growth drag from ageing, but that ageing societies may be less well placed to capture those gains because labour mobility, training participation and business dynamism tend to weaken with age. Using OECD Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies data for 31 countries, the paper finds that workers’ overall exposure to AI follows an inverted U-shaped pattern across age groups, while exposure to automation is highest among younger workers and falls rapidly with age as experience tends to complement AI. It also highlights wide cross-country differences in ageing speed and AI potential. Countries with faster ageing but strong AI potential may still benefit materially from AI deployment, while others with both rapid ageing and weaker AI potential may struggle more. The paper says large-scale AI adoption is likely to require significant labour reallocation, reskilling and upskilling, yet these adjustments are harder in ageing societies because older workers are less mobile, use advanced digital tools less often, and face persistent age-related discrimination. It also flags risks that AI could reduce entry-level job opportunities and weaken intergenerational knowledge transfer, while lower firm dynamism in older societies could slow technology diffusion. The paper says further work is needed on how durable AI-driven productivity gains will be, how quickly more advanced forms of AI and robotics may develop, and how demographic change affects business dynamism and the spread of new technologies across countries.
OECD2026-07-06
OECD working paper finds AI could partly offset ageing-related growth drag but may be harder to deploy in older societies
The OECD has published a working paper arguing that AI could partly offset the economic drag from population ageing through productivity gains and relief for labour shortages. Using PIAAC data, it finds overall AI exposure peaks in mid-career, while younger workers face more automation exposure and older societies may struggle more with the reskilling, labour reallocation and business dynamism needed to capture AI gains. The paper also highlights risks for entry-level jobs and says more research is needed on the long-run productivity effects of AI.