The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas published an updated Texas Employment Forecast projecting Texas jobs to rise 1.4 percent in 2026, with an 80 percent confidence band of 0.7 to 2.1 percent, marking a downgrade from the prior month’s forecast. It also flagged that, given several headwinds, growth could land near the lower end of the band at around 1.0 percent. The forecast implies 205,500 jobs added over the year and total employment of 14.6 million by December 2026, and is based on an average of four models incorporating projected national GDP, oil futures prices, and the Texas and U.S. leading indexes. Recent labor market data showed Texas employment grew at an annualized 0.3 percent in February, while January growth was revised down to 1.1 percent; seasonally adjusted metro unemployment rates fell in Austin–Round Rock, Brownsville–Harlingen, Dallas–Plano–Irving, El Paso, Fort Worth–Arlington, and San Antonio–New Braunfels, and were unchanged in Houston–The Woodlands–Sugar Land.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2026-04-17
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas revises down Texas Employment Forecast to 1.4% job growth in 2026
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas lowered its Texas Employment Forecast, now projecting 1.4 percent job growth in 2026 within an 80 percent confidence band of 0.7 to 2.1 percent, and noting growth could be closer to 1.0 percent given several headwinds. The forecast, based on four models using projected national GDP, oil futures prices, and leading indexes, implies 205,500 jobs added and total employment of 14.6 million by December 2026, amid slowing job growth but broadly stable or improving metro unemployment rates.