The South African Reserve Bank published its composite business cycle indicators, showing the composite leading indicator fell by 0.3% in April 2025, while the coincident and lagging indicators rose by 0.2% and 0.4% respectively in March 2025. The April decline in the leading indicator occurred as seven of ten available component series decreased, led by a deceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate of real M1 money supply and a drop in domestic manufacturing orders. The largest positive contributions came from an acceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate of new passenger vehicle sales and an increase in residential building plans approved. The coincident indicator’s March increase was driven by higher real wholesale, retail and motor trade sales, and the indicators continue to be revised as underlying component series are updated. The next release is scheduled for 22 July 2025 at 09:00.
South African Reserve Bank 2025-06-24
South African Reserve Bank reports 0.3% April fall in leading business cycle indicator and March increases in coincident and lagging indicators
The South African Reserve Bank reported a 0.3% decline in the composite leading indicator for April 2025, with decreases in seven of ten component series, notably real M1 money supply and domestic manufacturing orders. In contrast, the coincident and lagging indicators rose by 0.2% and 0.4% in March 2025, driven by increased real wholesale, retail, and motor trade sales.