The Dutch Central Bank has published its Spring Forecast alongside two alternative scenarios showing how prolonged increases in oil and gas prices could raise inflation and weaken the Dutch economy. The scenarios are not forecasts. They illustrate the potential effects if energy markets remain tight for longer, with no change in government or central bank policy, including higher costs for households and companies, weaker financing conditions and slower economic growth. In the adverse scenario, energy prices rise but fall relatively quickly after a peak in the third quarter of 2026. Inflation reaches 2.9% in 2027 and remains above the baseline forecast in 2028, while economic growth slows modestly as purchasing power weakens, investment is delayed and trade growth softens. In the severe scenario, oil and gas prices rise further and stay elevated for much longer, with greater financial market uncertainty. Inflation peaks at 4.6% in 2027, growth falls back more sharply, especially in 2027, unemployment rises above 5%, and weaker domestic demand and slower world trade add to the downturn. The central bank also notes the risk of second-round effects, with higher wages feeding through into prices and keeping inflation elevated for longer.
De Nederlandsche Bank2026-06-12
Dutch Central Bank sets out energy price stress scenarios with inflation peaking at 4.6%
The Dutch Central Bank has published two energy price stress scenarios alongside its Spring Forecast to show how prolonged high oil and gas prices could affect the Dutch economy. In the adverse scenario, inflation rises to 2.9% in 2027 with a modest growth slowdown, while in the severe scenario inflation peaks at 4.6%, growth weakens more sharply and unemployment rises above 5%.